Nifty Weekly Forecast From Feb 27, 2012 - Moving towards 200 days EMA 5237 ? (Expected Trading Range: 5121 - 5607)

Feb 24, 2012 - Nifty closed today at 5429.30 which is about 135 points down (2.43%) from the last week close of 5564.30 on Feb 17, 2012. Nifty was trading between 5405.90 - 5629.95 which is about the swing of 224 points. Note that Nifty was up by about 17% year to date in 2012 and this week logs the first weekly loss on this year 2012.

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NSE Index in Google Finance

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NSE Index in Yahoo Finance

Last Week Analysis - When will the Bubble Burst?

Nifty was down by 2.43% for the last week and still it was up by 17% for year to date.

FYI - France will hold presidential elections on April 22 and May 6, followed by general elections in June.
US will hold presidential elections on Nov 06, 2012.

Speculators and chart slaves following the charts claiming that bull market is back. Note that you will never see a bull market rally for 17% in 8 weeks. It can happen only in bear market. Greedy investors wants to make more money from the market by creating a bubble. Greedy hedge fund managers keep betting more and more on the market direction to create a bubble. They will not hesitate to stop betting until Nasdaq reaches 3,000.00, Dow Jones reaches 13,000.00 and S&P 500 reaches 1,400.00. It is nothing but to touch the fancy number before it moves down significantly and this is the time when the Nasdaq Tech bubble will burst.

Some people think that the economic problems in Euro Zone is only for Europe but it is not true. When a country/region experiences a slow down it will have domino effect on other countries very quickly as the world market is currently tightly connected.

With respect to US long term treasury prices, TLT closed today at 117.50 which a gain of 92 cents for the week compared to last week close of 116.58. US treasury is now too late to short and too early to buy. But if you are short on US treasuries, you can liquidate your short position. US treasuries (Ticker: TLT) would bottom near 100 - 103 and TLT upside would be maximum of 125-130. Note that even though market rallied for the last two weeks, TLT is flat in the same period. Most knowledgable investors had already started moving towards US treasuries.

Last Week Low: 5405.90
Last Week High: 5629.95

It is time to liquidate all of your long positions on Nifty and create new short position. We do not have any history of running into bull market crossing over 200 days EMA in one shot. It has to go through a couple of retesting. Still market has to go through lots of bad news from Euro Zone, downgrades, unemployment, etc.

If you are conservative investors, hold currency or indian T-Bills rather than creating short position on Nifty. You can take long positions on Nifty between 4000 and 4500. Nifty might experience a double dip in Indian Market along with world market correction in the long term (about one and half years). With double dip, Nifty is expected to touch 2600 levels set on Oct 2008 and Mar 2009. Wait for some more time to get more clues on "double dip on Nifty"

For Speculators and Intraday Players - Options Strip

1. Buy 2X OTM put option and 1X OTM call option - Options Strip.

2. Short Stocks and stop loss orders.

3. Short Stocks with long call options

Note: OTM - means Outside the money.

Technical Indicators

10 days EMA: 5463.99
21 days EMA: 5360.90
50 days EMA: 5177.59
200 days EMA: 5236.57

Next Resistance Levels:

Strong Resistence level at: 5360.70 - Set on Oct 28, 2011

Strong Resistence level at: 5633.95 - Set on Jul 22, 2011

Strong Resistence level at: 5884.70 - Set on Apr 28, 2011

Strong Resistence level at: 6134.50 - Set on Dec 31, 2010

Strong Resistence level at: 6274.30 - Set on Jan 04, 2008

Strong Resistence level at: 6312.45 - Set on Nov 05, 2010 (Double Top of Jan 04, 2008)

Next Support Levels:

Minor support level at 5236.57 set by 200 days EMA

Minor support level at 5177.59 set by 50 days EMA

Strong support level at 4718.00 set on Feb 05, 2010

Strong support level at 4639.10 set on Nov 24, 2011

Minor Support level at 4531.15 set on Dec 20, 2011

Strong support level at 4003.90 set on Jul 10, 2009

Strong support level at 2620.10 set on Mar 06, 2009 Will reach here with double dip

Strong support level at 2584.00 set on Oct 24, 2008 Will reach here with double dip